“We need you back, Tim,” said nobody. “Coverage of what’s happening in Georgia just isn’t enough. Goddamit man, it’s only Ani Chkhikvadze out there explaining things with style and substance – don’t you want to stick your oar in? You call yourself an Englishman, don’t you? Well then, it’s your national right to interfere when you’ve not been asked and where your input probably isn’t wanted.”

“Damn it, you’re right,” I sighed. And so like an LA cop coming out of retirement to solve the Big Case, I find myself metaphorically downing the last drop of whisky in the glass, putting my political pistol back in its holster, and dusting off my columnist’s badge.

So here I am, feeling the usual hair-pulling frustration mixed with a strange lightness of heart, like a man re-shouldering a heavy burden, and find myself once again contemplating matters in Tbilisi. 

I’m starting to think that I was to Georgia what Atlas was to the world in Greek mythology, holding it up and keeping it steady – I mean to say, the place has really gone to the dogs since I left six months ago. And, as always, just about everyone is to blame. 

It has not, however, been a boring time. Saakashvili has turned a personally disastrous situation to his advantage, the Georgian Dream faction have finally provided enough proof that they all share the same three brain cells, and we’ve been treated to a masterclass from young Ukrainian politicians on how to torpedo promising political careers before they’re barely got off the ground.

[Note: if you are fortunate enough to be one of my regular readers, you might recall the piece I wrote in the wake of having spent some time with Saakashvili in Ukraine earlier this year. It has come to my attention that a number of commentators in Georgia have insinuated that I could have made a pile of cash from the Georgian Dream party by penning such a critical piece. Well, nobody offered and I wouldn’t have accepted; I am firm but fair, as A. A. Gill once said about his own work – although mine is without his skill, style, or cash. Besides, I imagine I said too many nice things about Saakashvili for Georgian Dream’s taste, anyway.]

Starting with the obvious, I shall begin our exploration of the fault lines with the Georgian Dream party. They initially found difficulty in apprehending Saakashvili during his illegal entry into Georgia and subsequent reenactment of Catch Me If You Can; they then attempted to cover up their incompetence by claiming that they had simply said they couldn’t find him to lure him into a false sense of security, as though he was a Bengal tiger on the loose from London zoo who needs zapping with a tranquilliser gun.

This was followed by a political performance tantamount to the Georgian Dream higher-ups showing their bare arses to Brussels while grinning at their friends in Moscow. It has, after all, taken far too long to charge him with anything. 

Now, let us ignore the illegality of keeping someone under lock and key without charge and focus on its stupidity. For almost a decade, the Georgian Dream crew (it sticks in the caw to call them a party these days) have insisted that Saakashvili is a criminal and that he must be returned to Georgia to face the charges levelled against him. Now that they’ve actually got him they don’t seem to have a clue what to do with him. 

The cynical – or logical, which are synonymous terms in this case – might wonder why on earth it’s taken them this long to charge him if he’s so very guilty: they’ve had a decade to gather the evidence, therefore if it’s as clear-cut as they’ve been saying since 2012 just get on with it and imprison him. 

These charges are centred on vague accusations of corruption, abuse of power, and embezzlement, and here again, on these pages, I must express my sympathy with Western diplomats since the incessantly dishonest and incompetent nature of Georgian politics means that either side could be right. I can well believe that accusations of Saakashvili’s abuse of power could stick in court, especially regarding incidents such as his raid on Iberia TV back in 2004; corruption, too, could probably be brought to bear, especially regarding the appointment of friends or attractive young women (you might have noticed that his political career seems to follow a pattern wherever he goes). 

But then, those sorts of accusations can boil down to matters of opinion. To play devil’s advocate – and in Georgian Dream’s mind, so far as it has one, Saakashvili is the devil mixed with Hitler and Kevin Spacey – Saakashvili appointing Vera Kobalia all those years ago because she has, as I like to say, the message for the chaps, is hardly as bad as Bidzina Ivanishvili selecting consecutive Prime Ministers. And if she got that job by having to ride the Saakashvili Political Express as some people claim, well, at least she’d studied in Canada rather than Moscow. In other words, if that sort of thing is what they’ll call corruption, Georgian Dream had best be careful.

The charges of embezzlement are another matter. To my mind it seems like something Saakashvili would be capable of, in the sort of way that as the self-described ‘savior of the nation’ he might think he deserved a few more treats out of the financial cookie jar; at the same time, it’s exactly the sort of thing that Georgian Dream would lie about. Yes, I really do pity Western diplomats. Getting the truth out of these situations is about as easy as navigating a labyrinth while blindfolded and being repeatedly kicked in the face. 

As footage of their treatment of him has shown, their imagination on dealing with him as a threat goes nowhere beyond “Saakashvili is our enemy. We must get rid of him”. That they’re trying to do this in such a pathetically clumsy way speaks volumes for their collective intellectual capacity or lack thereof. The time it has taken them to stick him up for trial can only be because they’re frightened the charges won’t stick and that a court appearance will just give him a major platform. 

He is, after all, a fine orator – not for him the shuffling, awkward, slurred and often panicked or reactionary rhetoric you see from the Georgian Dream. And after a hunker strike, with footage released of his appalling treatment in custody…? No, they dare not let the gallant martyr take the stage, bruised and battered but still determined to make himself heard – and he would make himself heard, it’s plain that even they don’t doubt that. 

Of course, they’ve fallen into his trap already. He is a shrewd man and seems to have correctly guessed that his performance as the starved beaten patriot would incur public sympathy – something that, again, the Georgian Dream party don’t seem to understand. 

As I have written on these pages before, I liked Saakashvili more before I met him, but I also recorded my admiration for his political skill. And I must say, he has turned a disastrous re-entry into Georgia to triumph. I do not doubt that he initially believed that upon his return he would be treated to Rose Revolution 2.0 with all the people flocking to his gut with red and white flags. When he realized people didn’t care, he made them care. As much as I deplore his arrogance and inability to be criticized, I can’t but help respect his physical courage. 

But the man himself is equally at fault in all this. In my opinion, this great glorious return to Georgia came simply because Saakashvili had – finally – realised that his political capital in Ukraine had been in minus digits for years. This sort of political turmoil is not what Georgia needs – not for Saakashvili the maxim of ‘if you love something let it go’. That is not, of course, to say that what it does need is more Georgian Dream, what with their democratic backsliding and increasingly brazen authoritarian tendencies. 

I suppose this is my main point of umbrage: the idea that Georgia’s only choices for its future are either Saakashvili effectively becoming king or Ivanishvili continuing his backseat driving. As former American Ambassador Ian Kelly wrote on Twitter, “Both are a poison in the body politic. As are all politicians, including in my country, who choose conflict and personal power over the national interest”. I couldn’t have said it better myself – which is, obviously, why I’ve quoted him here. He has also put his finger on a key point in this whole sad scenario. 

You might have seen pictures of the opposition protests, with some people holding signs saying ‘No to BeloGeorgia!’. While this is an obvious stab at Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko and the predictable comparison with Ivanishvili, Georgia would inevitably become BeloGeorgia if Saakashvili came back. Does Saakashvili respect the democratic processes? In practice, I imagine (but don’t know for certain) that he does. In principle, however, I don’t think he’s entirely on board with it. After all, Saakashvili hasn’t gotten the message after successive elections in both Georgia and Ukraine that he is not what people want.

Of course, the man is also probably feeling pleased with himself for causing a major diplomatic incident between Kyiv and Tbilisi, which was doubtless his intent. Just as Georgia and Ukraine were patching things up and playing nicely again, Georgia arrests a Ukrainian citizen. Even Volodymyr Zelensky – an actor whose political skill could perhaps charitably be called amateur – noticed that this was hardly good news. 

I’m afraid I can’t absolve foreigners from blame either, from the well-meaning handful of Ukrainian MPs to the inactive West. Europe and America’s practice of giving developing countries the tools and cash to build their nations has demonstrably failed wherever it has been tried. Of course, there has been guidance provided, but that has been more in the form of an elderly piano teacher than an army drill instructor. Naturally, it’s nicer when someone expresses ‘grave concern’ over your shortcomings rather than kicking you in the ribs, but the end result is rather different. 

Of course, if the West took a more direct approach in telling Georgians what to do it would only be accused of neo-imperialism, but since this is being levelled at them anyway, they might as well go all in. Truth be told, I know quite a few Georgians who at this stage are sick of their own politicians wouldn’t even object to being made the 51st state. 

As for the well-meaning Ukrainian MPs, whom I have met and rather liked, my advice would be to take a step back. There is a chance – just a chance, mind you – that Saakashvili really was guilty of some of the things he’s been accused of; besides, he definitely crossed a border without flashing a passport, which is a practice generally frowned upon by the legally-minded. But I can see why they’re so passionate in defending him: they’ve only heard his side of the story, after all.

This leads me on to how Saakashvili has a great talent for bringing his followers down, from those who sheltered him on his arrival in Georgia (I wonder what they were promised?) to his new partner. I’d never be one to stand in the way of true love, of course, but announcing a relationship over Facebook when Saakashvili’s Dutch wife – who has even run for elections representing his party in his absence – was unaware of this happy new union is just a little tasteless (also, dear, studying for one year at Oxford doesn’t actually constitute ‘having gone to Oxford’). Besides, given how Saakashvili explained to me in a Mariupol park how much easier Russian girls were Ukrainian girls (his exact words were a little more coarse), even though his new Ukrainian partner was standing just twenty paces away…well, it’s hardly the conduct of a gentleman, nor one who is spoony in love. Christ, it would have sounded tacky from a sixteen-year-old on a street corner, let alone a former head of state. 

I don’t mention this to be facetious – well, perhaps a bit, but it’s low-hanging fruit – I just don’t see how it can possibly further the careers of those Ukrainian MPs by latching themselves on to a man whose political legacy will, if he’s lucky, be remembered as ‘mixed’. 

So who is to blame for this farce? Practically everyone. But as to who will lose the most, no matter the outcome, I’m afraid the answer can only be Georgia. Europe has, in my view, one last chance to assert its claim for regional influence in the Caucasus by taking a heavy hand in Georgia now, but whether it has the willpower is extremely doubtful. 

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By: Nicholas Waller
Title: Only the West can save Georgia
Sourced From: www.neweurope.eu/article/only-the-west-can-save-georgia/
Published Date: Tue, 07 Dec 2021 12:30:04 +0000

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