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As unemployment nears preandemic levels, the Fed sees a strong labor market.



Federal Reserve officials are tasked with fostering “full employment,” and while it has been difficult to guess what that means as the economy recovers from huge job losses at the start of the pandemic, March hiring data seemed likely to reaffirm to policymakers that the labor market is running hot.

Now, central bankers are hoping conditions settle into a more sustainable balance.

The jobless rate declined to 3.6 percent in March from 3.8 percent in February, data released Friday showed. Unemployment is rapidly closing in on the 3.5 percent unemployment rate that prevailed before the pandemic.

The unemployment rate continued to fall in March.

The share of people who have looked for work in the past four weeks or are temporarily laid off, which does not capture everyone who lost work because of the pandemic.

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5

10

15%

’19

’20

’21

’22

3.6%

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

At the same time, wages picked up by a brisk 5.6 percent over the past year. For context, wage growth had hovered between 2 and 3 percent for much of the 2010s.

While the share of people working or looking for jobs remains depressed compared to its level before the pandemic and people are coming back into the labor market with each passing month, it is not clear when the supply of would-be employees will return to its previous level. In the meantime, officials worry that the job market is showing signs of being hot to an unsustainable degree, with labor shortages and climbing pay rates that could help push up prices while inflation is already high.

“By many measures, the labor market is extremely tight, significantly tighter than the very strong job market just before the pandemic,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said

By: Jeanna Smialek
Title: The Fed eyes a hot labor market as unemployment nears prepandemic levels.
Sourced From: www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/business/economy/jobs-fed-full-employment.html
Published Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2022 13:18:03 +0000

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