WASHINGTON — Top U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been surprised and unsettled by the problems that have hampered his military in Ukraine, issues that will make it more difficult for Russian forces to control the country.But Mr. Putin is determined to succeed in Ukraine, and will try to double down and use ever more brutal tactics, the officials said during an appearance before the House Intelligence Committee.America’s intelligence agencies, which before the war released information on Russia’s troop buildup and war plans, will work to highlight Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the information war that helped rally the West to impose tough sanctions on Ukraine, the officials said.Before the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the war would be relatively quick, allowing him to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told lawmakers.“Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues,” Ms. Haines said.Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate even more forces than Russia has committed to the fight, she said.Some allied intelligence services believe that Mr. Putin’s early military problems could cause him to readjust his plans to take control of the whole country, and stop his advance after he captures Kyiv, particularly if military officers highlight how many additional forces it will require to secure Ukraine.But diplomats are also quick to add that they are not sure how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the situation. At the hearing, Ms. Haines said Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his campaign, despite the logistical problems his military is having.“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks,” Ms. Haines said, “and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO.”Given the problems the Russian military has faced, and the rising will of Ukraine to fight, intelligence officials predicted the war would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an “ugly next few weeks.”“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now,” Mr. Burns said. He is likely to “try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties,” he added.Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said there was a limit to how long Kyiv could hold on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. “With supplies being cut off, it will become somewhat desperate in, I would say, 10 days to two weeks,” General Berrier said.Other estimates are similar. Some allied governments believe Russia will finish encircling Kyiv in a week and, given the strength of Ukraine’s resistance, the city may be able to hold out for another month, a European diplomat said on Tuesday.Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine War
Updated March 8, 2022, 7:17 p.m. ETThe U.N. finds itself in the middle of a controversy over the word ‘war.’Overwhelmed and under fire, hospitals in Ukraine’s war zones struggle to tend to the wounded.Lawmakers close in on agreement to provide nearly $14 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.While the intelligence chiefs said Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns said it would be incorrect to view his actions as crazy.The Russian leader’s increasing isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him “extremely difficult to deal with,” Mr. Burns said. Without aides willing to push back, Mr. Putin entered the war misunderstanding the will of Ukraine to fight back and the West to take action.Image
75&auto=webp&disable=upscale" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/03/08/us/politics/08dc-intel-2/merlin_203482431_eb5e7747-b6f0-4522-b3b8-96e38d6b8ee9-articleLarge.jpg" />75&auto=webp 600w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/03/08/us/politics/08dc-intel-2/merlin_203482431_eb5e7747-b6f0-4522-b3b8-96e38d6b8ee9-jumbo.jpg" />75&auto=webp 1024w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/03/08/us/politics/08dc-intel-2/merlin_203482431_eb5e7747-b6f0-4522-b3b8-96e38d6b8ee9-superJumbo.jpg" />75&auto=webp 2048w" sizes="((min-width: 600px) By: Julian E. Barnes
Title: Spy Agencies Cite Russia’s Setbacks but Say Putin Is ‘Unlikely to Be Deterred’
Sourced From: www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/us/politics/us-intelligence-russia-ukraine.html
Published Date: Wed, 09 Mar 2022 00:20:55 +0000
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