WASHINGTON — Senior White House officials designing the strategy to confront Russia have begun quietly debating a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions directed at Moscow, which have gained speed faster than they imagined, is cornering President Vladimir V. Putin and may prompt him to lash out, perhaps expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine.In Situation Room meetings in recent days, the issue has come up repeatedly, according to three officials. Mr. Putin’s tendency, American intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels trapped by his own overreach. So they have described a series of possible reactions, ranging from indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities to compensate for the early mistakes made by his invading force, to cyberattacks directed at the American financial system, to more nuclear threats and perhaps moves to take the war beyond Ukraine’s borders.The debate over Mr. Putin’s next moves is linked to an urgent re-examination by intelligence agencies of the Russian leader’s mental state, and whether his ambitions and appetite for risk have been altered by two years of Covid isolation.Those concerns accelerated after Mr. Putin’s order on Sunday to place the country’s strategic nuclear weapons on a “combat ready” alert to respond to the West’s “aggressive comments.” (In the ensuing days, however, national security officials say they have seen little evidence on the ground that Russia’s nuclear forces have actually moved to a different state of readiness.)It was a sign of the depth of American concern that Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III announced Wednesday that he was canceling a previously scheduled Minuteman nuclear missile test, to avoid escalating direct challenges to Moscow or giving Mr. Putin an excuse to once again invoke the power of the country’s nuclear arsenal.“We did not take this decision lightly, but instead, to demonstrate that we are a responsible nuclear power,” John F. Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said Wednesday. “We recognize at this moment of tension how critical it is that both the United States and Russia bear in mind the risk of miscalculation, and take steps to reduce those risks.”Nonetheless, Mr. Putin’s reaction to the initial wave of sanctions has provoked a range of concerns that one senior official called the “Cornered Putin Problem.” Those concerns center on a series of recent announcements: the pullout of oil companies like Exxon and Shell from developing Russia’s oil fields, the moves against Russia’s central bank that sent the ruble plunging, and Germany’s surprise announcement that it would drop its ban on sending lethal weapons to the Ukrainian forces and ramp up its defense spending.But beyond canceling the missile test, there is no evidence that the United States is considering steps to reduce tensions, and a senior official said there was no interest in backing off sanctions.“Quite the contrary,’’ said the official, who, like other American officials interviewed for this story, asked for anonymity to discuss the internal debates among Mr. Biden’s advisers.In fact, President Biden announced expanded sanctions on Thursday, aimed at Russia’s oligarch class. Many of those named — including Dmitry Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman and one of his close advisers — rank among his most influential defenders and the beneficiaries of the system he has created.Mr. Biden, reading a prepared statement and taking no questions, said the sanctions have had “a profound impact already.”A few hours after he spoke, S&P dropped Russia’s credit rating to CCC-, the credit-rating agency said in a statement. That is far below the junk bond levels Russia was ranked at a few days after the invasion, and just two notches above a warning that the country was going into default.It suggested that Mr. Putin’s effort to “sanctions-proof” his economy had largely failed. And at least for now, there is no discernible off-ramp for the Russian leader short of declaring a cease-fire or pulling back his forces — steps he has so far shown no interest in taking.At a news briefing at the White House on Thursday afternoon, Jen Psaki, the press secretary, said that she knew of no efforts to show Mr. Putin a way out. “I think right in this moment, they are marching toward Kyiv with a convoy and continuing to take reportedly barbaric steps against the people of Ukraine. So now is not the moment where we are offering options for reducing sanctions.”Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine War
Updated March 3, 2022, 6:32 p.m. ETU.S. will allow some Ukrainians to stay in the country temporarily.The European Union offers three-year protection for Ukrainian refugees.Times photographers document Ukraine underBy: David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes
Title: Washington’s Newest Worry: The Dangers of Cornering Putin
Sourced From: www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/washington-putin-worry.html
Published Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2022 01:01:36 +0000
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