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What Are the Odds of a Trump Win This November? | 538 Politics Podcast

By Albert Thomas May 9, 2024 1 mins read 1372 Views

FiveThirtyEight


The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced.

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